Half 2020, world media revealed the relevance of the COVID-19 problem. Now the top news was headed by elections in the United States. About how the presidential race is underway, who leads and what forecasts for the victory of various candidates are those or other experts - in the material 24cm.
Candidates
As the election date, scheduled for November 3, 2020, is inexorable approaching, the struggle between applicants for the American throne is increasingly going.Moreover, the siege of competitors is conducted in all the rules. There are mutual accusations. A different degree of reliability is extracted to the light, designed to investigate other candidates for the place in the Oval Cabinet. Did not forget the opposing parties to tell about the intervention of Russia and China in the US elections.
Leaders
For a long time, the leading position holds a nominal from the Democratic Party of the United States, the former Vice President Joe Biden. Speaking at the beginning of the election race to break away from the current head of state in good and a half dozen percent.
The electorate of the candidate program presented for the review is considerable attention to the need to modernize the existing system of countering cyber throats from Russia and China. Reclamation of the current tax policy, according to the applicants, negatively affecting the middle class. As well as resolving the issue of the American-Iranian "nuclear transaction".
Joe Biden also believes that without Russian intervention in the US elections, the case will not cost, as the leadership of a competitor's country will not wish to allow His victory. By the way, Biden in the event of victory in the elections will be the most age president of the United States of America - in November 2020 he will be 78 years old.
At the second line of the rating of the likely winners, the current leader of the United States Donald Trump was located on the second line of the Republican Party, who managed to reduce the percentage of his main competitor by September.
As of the first half of September, the advantage in favor of Biden did not exceed 7%. And in individual states, traditionally strong support for republican candidates, and at all, people's opinion was on the side of Trump, whose shares in the current political confrontation were seriously grown after a number of rivals errors.
The essence of the current pre-election program of Donald Trump, based on the criticism of Baiden and his supporters, is to present the democrats by the main force leading the Institute of American Statehood to Collapse, and the American dream is to oblivion.
According to the current president, the main strategy of his opponents is to compromise the country, presenting it as immoral and backward, with social bundles and racial discrimination. It was not without hints for the involvement of democrats to the organization that had engulfed a number of unrest and the emergence of the Black Lives Matter movement, although direct charges were voiced and not.
Also among the election promises Trump - to make the United States again an unprecedentedly strong country, as well as to present a vaccine from coronavirus infection.
Second line
Like any other large-scale views, the elections in the United States could not do without minor actors. Among such characters include:- Joe Georgensen is the first presidential candidate from the Libertarian Party, advocating the abolition of economic sanctions against other countries, as well as for the conclusion of the American armed forces from foreign military conflicts. Also in the plans of the Lady-Challenger, the termination of the construction of the Wall between the United States and Mexico, the construction of which began on the initiative of Donald Trump.
- Howee Hawkins - Ecologist and trade union activist, promoter from the Green Party, promoting the idea of the Green New Course, aimed at social and environmental reform, and the creation of opposition parties of Republicans and Democrats of a political and social labor movement.
Among independent candidates, they call the names of the fantastic abstraction of prohibitions of abortions of the famous black rapper Kanye West, who managed to register for elections in 10 states. And Dan Rattiner, an 81-year-old journalist and publisher, even before the elections of 2016 reported that it was going to join the struggle for the presidential chair at the turn of decades.
Dropsy
Among the presidential presidential candidates, the US presidential elections in 2020 were:
- From Democrats: Michael Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders, Pete Battigich.
- From Republicans: Mark Sanford, William Weld, Joe Walsh.
- From Libertarians: Adam Kokesh, Dan Berman, Jacob Hornberger.
- From "Green": Jill Stein.
Forecasts of experts
Given how unpredictable the election struggle in the United States was, interest in this topic, both ordinary people and all kinds of political scientists, and all kinds of political scientists.So, before the start of the race, it is hardly the main challenger for the post of future US president, Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York, was considered. However, it was worth only to start primaries, as a candidate from Democrats quickly retired, not justifying hopes assigned to him.
At that time, Donald Trump, who began with the position of the lagging behind, gradually reduced the gap, breathe the main thing to his ill-wisher - Joe Bideno - in the head. And threatening to the November elections in the Republican, rigidly snatch leadership from the hands of a democratic promoter. So now the answer to the question of who will win and eventually takes the presidential chair, does not seem so unequivocal.
Victory to the Chief Rival Trmpa Joe Biden in the current elections, Allan Likhtman prophesies. The American historian is famous for, regularly making forecasts about the outcome of the highest level since 1984, only once was mistaken when he was predicted in the 2000s Albert Mountain, a candidate from the Democratic Party.
Moreover, Lichtman himself argues that when manually recalculating the vote, incomparable mistakes were allowed, which made the Bush-Jr. Bush's victory. And the initial analysis of the expert was true.
As of September, when another 1.5 months before the designated election date, Allan Lichtmann was confirmed by sociological studies of Reuters agencies (together with IPSOS) and Rasmussen. In the analytical calculations presented to organizations, the percentage of electoral votes given in favor of the former vice president is clearly traced.
However, specialists of the Moody's Analytics Research Agency did not agree with the conclusions of Professor Likhtman, as early as 2019, in 2019, the Donald Trump, in spite of everything, will be the leader of the presidential race of 2020.
Supported this opinion and Helmut Norpot, a professor of political science, whose forecasts had previously been prophetic. So, the political analyst in 2016 pointed to the victory of Donald Trump, and turned out to be right. Norpot and now I am sure that with a probability of more than 90% of the victory in the approaching elections, the current US President will re-defeat.
According to the expert, this demonstrates the results of the primary - as a rule, it is the positive results of this stage of the pre-election race that the most clearly indicate the actual leader of the "political race".
JPMorgan Chase & Co experts are also confident that Trump's leadership is more than possible, since the preliminary results of the surveys were incorrect due to the bias of their organizations. So with a considerable share of probability to the election date, the current president will again break out first.
Regarding the other applicants for a chair in the White House, an expert opinion converges. Analysts are confident that the total indicators of the votes gained from the promoters from the "third parties" and independent candidates will be significantly lower than have been demonstrated in 2016. And because it is not necessary to count on the victory of any of them.
Predictions of bookmakers
To go past such a chance to get used to the US elections, the bookmakers offering those who wish to make bets on this or that outcome of the voting were not possible. At the moment, put on the victory of the Trump possible with the coefficient of 2.75. On its main opponent, Byyden, the coefficient is 1.44. Moreover, in the first quarter of the year, the situation was the opposite - the probability of the presidency of Trump was estimated by bookmakers at 52% at 48% at Bayden.
The rate that the elections in the United States will benefit some of the representatives of the third forces are possible with the "unreal" coefficient of 151.00, that is, a similar outcome of the bookmakers are at all in the category of fantastic.