Half 2020, abezindaba zomhlaba baveze ukuhambisana kwenkinga yeCovil-19. Manje izindaba eziphezulu zaziholwa ngokhetho e-United States. Cishe ukuthi umjaho womongameli uqhubeka kanjani, oholayo nokuthi yikuphi ukubikezela kokunqoba kwabanye ukhetho noma abanye ochwepheshe - endaweni ebonakalayo engu-24cm.
Abavakashi
Njengosuku lokhetho, oluhlelelwe ngoNovemba 3, 2020, luyakwazi ukusondela, umzabalazo phakathi kwezicelo zesihlalo sobukhosi saseMelika uya ngokuya.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuvinjezelwa kwabaqhudelana kwenziwa kuyo yonke imithetho. Kukhona izinsolo ezifanayo. Izinga elihlukile lokuthembela likhishwe ekukhanyiseni, eklanyelwe ukuphenya abanye abantu abazongenela iKhabhinethi ye-Oval. Abazange bakhohlwe amaqembu aphikisayo ukutshela ngokungenelela kweRussia naseChina okhethweni lwase-US.
Abaholi
Isikhathi eside, isikhundla esiholayo sibambe umgama avela ephathini yentando yeningi yase-United States, eyayiyiphini likaMengameli wangaphambilini uJoe Beriden. Ukukhuluma ekuqaleni komjaho wokhetho ukuze uhlukane nenhloko yombuso yamanje emaphesenti amahle namashumi nambili.
Abakhethiweyo bohlelo lomuntu omele ukhetho olwethulwe ukuze isibuyekezo sinaka kakhulu ngesidingo sohlelo lokubala olukhona lokulwa ne-cyber Throats kusuka eRussia naseChina. Ukuvuselelwa kwenqubomgomo yamanje yentela, ngokusho kwabafakizicelo, okuthinta kabi isigaba esiphakathi. Kanye nokuxazulula inkinga ye-American-Iranian "Transict".
UJoe Babiden futhi ukholelwa ukuthi ngaphandle kokungenelela kwaseRussia okhethweni lwase-US, icala ngeke libize, njengoba ubuholi bezwe lomqhudeli ngeke bufise ukuvumela ukunqoba kwakhe. By the way, biden uma kwenzeka ukunqoba okhethweni kuzoba ngumongameli weminyaka yonyaka we-United States of America - ngoNovemba 2020 uzoba neminyaka engama-78.
Umugqa wesibili wokulinganisa kwabaphumelele, umholi wamanje we-United States Donald Trump utholakala emugqeni wesibili wePieplican Party, okwazile ukunciphisa iphesenti lomqhudelani wakhe ophambili ngoSepthemba.
Njengengxenye yokuqala kaSepthemba, inzuzo ethandela i-biden ayidluli ku-7%. Futhi ezifundeni ngazinye, ukwesekwa okuqinile ngokwesiko kwabazongenela ukhetho lweRepublican, futhi nokho umbono wabantu wawuseceleni kukaTrump, owaziwayo lapho ubhekene namaphutha ezepolitiki akhule kakhulu ngemuva kwamaphutha ezimbangi eziningi.
Umnyombo wohlelo lwamanje lokhetho lukaDonald Trump, olususelwa ekugxekeni kweBaiden nabasekeli bakhe, ukwethula amaDemocrat ngamandla amakhulu ahola lesi sikhungo saseMelika ukuwa.
Ngokusho kukaMongameli wamanje, isu eliyinhloko labaphikisi bakhe ukuyekethisa izwe, liwethule njengokuziphatha okubi nangokubuyela emuva, nezinqwaba zenhlalo kanye nokubandlululwa kwenhlalo kanye nokubandlululwa emphakathini. Kwakungekhona ngaphandle kwamacebo wokubandakanyeka kwamaDemocrats enhlanganweni eyayifaka inqwaba yeziyaluyalu kanye nokuvela kokunyakaza okumnyama okubalulekile, yize amacala aqondile avezwa hhayi.
Futhi phakathi kokhetho lwethembisa uTrump - ukwenza i-United States futhi izwe elingakaze lifezeke, kanye nokwethula umuthi wokugomela ekuthelelekeni kweCoronavirus.
Umugqa wesibili
Njengeminye imibono emikhulu, ukhetho e-United States alukwazanga ukwenza ngaphandle kwabalingisi abancane. Phakathi kwezinhlamvu ezinjalo kufaka phakathi:- UJoe Georgensen ungumuntu wokuqala ongumongameli ovela ephathini yeLibertadian, ekhuthaza ukuqedwa kwemikhawulo yezomnotho nakwamanye amazwe, kanye nesiphelo samabutho aseMelika ahlomile kwangaphandle. Futhi ezinhlelweni ze-Lady-Challenger, ukunqanyulwa kokwakhiwa kodonga phakathi kwe-United States naseMexico, ukwakhiwa kwalo kwaqala ngalo msebenzi kaDonald Trump.
- IHawkins yeHowee - I-Ecologist kanye ne-Trade Union ashomist, ukugqugquzela i-Green Party, kuhloswe umbono wenkambo entsha ye-Green New Yezemvelo, kanye nokudalwa kwamaqembu aphikisayo amaRepublican kanye neDemocrats yenhlangano yezepolitiki yezombusazwe nezenhlalo .
Phakathi kwabazongenela ukhetho, babiza amagama okukhishwa okumnandi kwemibhalo yokukhishwa kwezisu zeRapper Kanye West, okwazile ukubhalisela ukhetho ezifundeni eziyi-10. Futhi uDan Ratter, isantatheli eneminyaka engu-81 noMshicileli, ngisho nangaphambi kokuba ukhetho lwango-2016 abike ukuthi kuzokujoyina umzabalazo wesihlalo sikamongameli ekuqaleni kwamashumi eminyaka.
Amasela notela
Phakathi kokhetho lukamongameli kamongameli, ukhetho lukamongameli lwase-US ngo-2020 lwalu:
- Kusuka kuma-Democrats: Michael Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders, Pete Battigich.
- Ukusuka kwiRepublicans: UMark Sanford, uWilliam Weld, Joe Walsh.
- Kusuka KwabaseLibertarians: U-Adam Kokesh, uDan Berman, uJacob Horngerger.
- Kusuka ku- "Green": Jill Stein.
Izibikezeli Zochwepheshe
Njengoba sinikezwe ukuthi kungalindeleki kanjani umzabalazo we-Election e-United States kwakuwukuthi lesi sihloko, abantu abajwayelekile nazo zonke izinhlobo zososayensi bezepolitiki, nazo zonke izinhlobo zososayensi bezepolitiki.Ngakho-ke, ngaphambi kokuqala komjaho, akulona inselelo enkulu yokuthumela uMongameli wase-US esizayo, uMichael Bloomberg, kwabhekwa ngaphambili kweMeya yaseNew York, kwabhekwa. Kodwa-ke, bekufanelekile ukuqala kuphela ama-primaries, njengoba umuntu ozongenela ukhetho evela kuma-Democrat athathe umhlalaphansi, hhayi amathemba anikezwe wona.
Ngaleso sikhathi, uDonald Trump, owaqala ngesikhundla sokubalekela emuva, kancane kancane wanciphisa igebe, aphefumula into esemqoka kwabagulayo - uJoe Bideno - ekhanda. Futhi usongelwe okhethweni lwangoNovemba eRiphabhliki, ngokuqinile bahlwitha ubuholi obuvela ezandleni zeDemocratic Podentic. Ngakho-ke manje impendulo yombuzo wokuthi ngubani ozowina futhi ekugcineni uthathe isihlalo sikaMongameli, abonakali kangako.
Ukunqoba imbangela yenhloko ye-TRMPA Joe Beniden okhethweni lwamanje, u-Allan Likhtman Proposesies. Isazi-mlando saseMelika sidumile, sibikezela njalo ngomphumela weveli ephezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-1984, wake waphutha nje lapho ebikezelwa eMpumalanga ye-Albert, okhethwayo evela ephathini yentando yeningi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uLichtman uqobo uveza ukuthi lapho evunyelwa amandla amavoti, amaphutha angenakuqhathaniswa avunyelwe, okwenza i-bush-jr. Ukunqoba kwesihlahla. Futhi ukuhlaziywa kokuqala kwesazi kwakuyiqiniso.
Kusukela ngoSepthemba, lapho ezinye izinyanga eziyi-1.5 ngaphambi kosuku lokhetho oluqokiwe, u-Allan Lichtmann waqinisekiswa izifundo zenhlalo ze-Reuters Agency (kanye ne-IPSOS) neRasmussen. Ezibalweni zokuhlaziya ezethulwe ezinhlanganweni, iphesenti lamavoti okhetho anikezwe esikhundleni soMmangali wangaphambilini wePhini likaMongameli.
Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe be-Moody's Analytics Research Agency abavumelani neziphetho zikaSolwazi Likhtman, ekuqaleni kuka-2019, ngonyaka ka-2019, uDonald Trump, uzoba ngumholi woMjaho ka-2020.
Usekelwe lo mbono kanye neNormut Norpot, uprofesa wesayensi yezepolitiki, okubikezele kwangaphambili okwakukhona ngaphambili. Ngakho-ke, umhlaziyi wezepolitiki ngonyaka we-2016 waveza ukunqoba kukaDonald Trump, futhi waphumela. Norpot futhi manje senginesiqiniseko sokuthi ngamathuba okunqoba okungaphezulu kwama-90% okhethweni olusondelayo, uMongameli wamanje wase-US uzonqoba kabusha.
Ngokusho kwesazi, lokhu kukhombisa imiphumela yenhloko - njengomthetho, yimiphumela emihle yalesi sigaba sohlanga lwangaphambi kokhetho olukhombisa ngokusobala umholi wangempela we- "umjaho wezepolitiki".
Ochwepheshe be-JPMorgan Chase & CO baphinde baqiniseka ukuthi ubuholi bukaTrump bungaphezu kwalokho okungenzeka, ngoba imiphumela yokuqala yocwaningo yayingalungile ngenxa yokubandlulula kwezinhlangano zabo. Ngakho-ke ngesabelo esibonakalayo sokuthi kungenzeka kosuku lokhetho, uMongameli wamanje uzophinde aqhamuke kuqala.
Ngokuphathelene nabanye abafaka izicelo zesihlalo eWhite House, umbono wochwepheshe wokuguqula. Abahlaziyi bayazethemba ukuthi izinkomba eziphelele zamavoti zitholwe kubaphromotha abaqhamuka "abakwesithathu" futhi abazimele bazobe bephansi kakhulu kunalokho okuboniswe ngo-2016. Futhi ngoba akudingekile ukubalwa ekunqobeni noma iyiphi yazo.
Izibikezelo Zobhuki
Ukuhamba ngedlule ithuba elinjalo lokujwayela ukhetho lwase-US, abezakhi bezincwadi bebhuki abafisa ukwenza ukubheja kulokhu noma lowo mphumela wokuvota bekungenzeki. Okwamanje, faka ukunqoba kwe-trump kungenzeka nge-coefficient of 2.75. Kumphikisi wayo oyinhloko, u-Byyden, i-coefficient ingu-1.44. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngekota yokuqala yonyaka, lesi simo sasihlukile - amathuba kamongameli kaTrump alinganiselwa kuma-52% ku-48% eBayden.
Izinga elithi ukhetho e-United States lizosizakala abanye babameleli bamabutho wesithathu kungenzeka nge-coefficient "ye-nonreal" ka-151.00, okungukuthi, umphumela ofanayo wabemabhuki manje usesigabeni se-fantastic.