A year ago, the election campaign was launched in Belarus, which marked the beginning of quite serious events in the republic, whose echoes are heard so far. According to the British analytical center, an active part in protest actions took 43.3% of the adult population - every fifth resident of Belarusian cities. Another 33.6% of the dissatisfied election results preferred to be in the role of "observers." The third group amounted to 23.1% of Belarusians who spoke on the side of Alexander Lukashenko.
How does the republic live, where a significant part of the population showed support for the opposition, almost a year later? 24cmi publishes topical information about what is happening in Belarus now.
Minsk today and the latest prominent shares
As of the middle of May 2021, the protest is ultraokal. Belarusians, most often residents of the capital, satisfy single or small pickets (10-15 people) at their own risk. They are still carrying white-red and white flags or put on clothes of such colors. Some, afraid of timing, "day" and impressive fines, demonstrate disagreement is secretive: painting opposition graffiti, hang bkb-tapes, transfers the telegram channel NEXTA.
All kinds of protest activity are close attention from the authorities. Musevarmers sketch Murals and graffiti, remove flags and other attributes, sometimes attract EMERCOM employees. One of the bright examples - Mural "DJs of Change", which was painted several times, but his activists were restored. For example, on May 8, the drawing again appeared on the "Change Square".
Many disagreements with the results of the elections make a decision to leave the country. A couple of months of protests left 13.5 thousand citizens. Belarusian media focuses attention that among them there are many physicians, programmers and businessmen. Emigrants are engaged in Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and Latvia. 43 Belarusian enterprises stated about the desire to move into the Baltic States, who have already begun the Realocate process, another 37 plan to do this. Lithuania is interested in moving 110 firms that can give 3 thousand new jobs to this country, Interfax writes.
The last more or less serious shares that have forced Belarusian law enforcement officers and the military to work in reinforced mode are dated March 25. On this day, the "Will Day" is informally celebrated in the country: each year the opposition arranges shares and processions that are under the supervision of the police, transfers the DW. Now activists only recall the number of marches in the center of Minsk: some participants in the protest events have already either passed through the "day" or froze in anticipation of the sentence.
Fate protesters and opposition leaders
At the end of February, the head of the Investigative Committee Ivan Noschevich said that in Belarus, 200,300 extremist criminal directions were investigated from the summer of 2020, Tut.BY reports. That is the power and law enforcement officers of the republic characterize the actions of the opposition. Under the hammer of the Belarusian justice, both the leaders of the protest movement and ordinary citizens who went to the streets to express their disagreement with the re-election of Lukashenko.One of the inspirationors of the opposition Sergey Tikhanovsky is located in the SIZO for almost a year. In March, he was presented with a final charge of 4 articles. One of them is punished in the form of imprisonment for up to 15 years. Also Tikhanovsky ordered to pay a tax with $ 900 thousand, which were found during the search in his mother's house.
In March, a criminal case for planning mass riots in Gomel was brought to Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. A few weeks later, they were accused of preparing the terrorist attack. The politician went to Lithuania almost immediately after the announcement of the election results and is there with children to this day. The authorities of Belarus turned to Lithuanian colleagues demanding to issue Tikhanovsky, to which the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Gabrielus Landsbergis replied:
"Rather hell freeze, than we will start considering your requirements."The right hand of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya Maria Kolesnikova is in the SIZO of 8 months. On May 13, she was presented to the final charge of 3 articles. She can be imprisoned for up to 12 years. Her assistant to the lawyer Maxim sign faces the same punishment.
Each day of oppositionists outrage the results of the next vessels, when, for example, for the inscription "Will not forget" on the asphalt give 2 years colonies. Such a message was left by two Minsk residents in the place where Alexander Taraikekovsky died. Or the history of the musician of the group "We demand to disperse" Alexey Santucha, who played the drums during the protests. For this, a man received 6 years in a reinforced mode colony.
Journalists turned out to be the defendants. 37-year-old Ekaterina Borisievich received 6 months of prison for disclosing medical mystery. An episode with a journalist occurred in November 2020, when an activist Roman Bondarenko was killed in a fight with unknowns. Law enforcement officers argued that the guy was in a state of alcohol intoxication. But the doctor BSMP Artem Sorokin said that Bondarenko was sober. It was the 37-year-old anesthesiologist who assisted a man when he was taken to the hospital after a fight. Borisievich, having talked to the doctor, prepared material about Bondarenko. Information about him journalist published with the permission of the loved deceased. But Sorokin, and Borisievich were on the dock, but the circumstances of the death of Bondarenko and the name of his killer are still unknown.
Every day, Belarusian media publishes notes, which are told about new sentences oppositioners who receive from 1 year to 18 years in prison. Some are separated by the "day" and impressive fines that are sometimes equal to 5 secondary salaries in the republic.
Possible scenarios for Belarus
After the care of the opposition from the streets of the KGB of Belarus and the FSB of Russia, data discussed data on the preparation of the attempted radicals on Alexander Lukashenko. The President of the Republic in this situation quite quickly reacted and prepared decree, according to which, in the case of his death, power in the country will go to members of the Security Council. A number of political scientists discuss the possible hidden meanings laid down on the decree, to this day, but Lukashenko assures that such a document was thought of a long time ago.
Having rebuffed for a new term, Alexander Grigorievich conceived the reform of the Constitution and collected a special commission for this. While everything is in the development stage, proposals come from citizens. National vote on the updated basic law will be held pre-in February 2022.
Svetlana Tihananovsky in the meantime stated that he would not participate in the new presidential elections in Belarus. She stressed that he did not want to become a perennial leader of the country: from the words of a woman, she and her supporters planned to become a "transitional" authority, which would help through fair elections would help strong politicians to take key positions in the state leadership. In this case, the opposition will remain again without a leader, because other noticeable protest figures are sitting in the SIZO and will soon go to the colony, TASS reports. Tikhanovskaya is still negotiating with European politicians who prepare for Belarus the 4th Package of Sanctions.
Ukrainian political scientist Andrei Zolotarev raised the situation in Belarus in two scenarios. They are associated with the fate of Alexander Lukashenko. If the Belarusian leader really want to eliminate, and these attempts are crowned with success, the republic will be either a hot spot, or successors will do everything true, and the continued course will determine the Prime Minister, and later the new president.
The prospect of military conflict on the territory of Belarus issued after the statement by the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, who promised to defend the sovereignty of the country. Zolotarev believes that in Belarus, even after the departure of Lukashenko, the strong influence of the Russian Federation is preserved, "Glavred" reports.
"There are much more chances in Belarus for those candidates who are associated with Russia, since the influence of Russian capital there is much stronger than the influence of the West," the political scientist emphasized.