In November, expert predictions regarding the behavior of the American national currency schedule in the last month of 2019, they agreed that the ruble before the New Year holidays awaits weakened, but were not united in detail: some promised to grow up to 66 rubles per dollar, others - only up to 63. The result was mistaken and those and others - the ruble of the commander, and in the last few days and at all for the first time in 1.5 years "struck" the mark of 62 units for the American dollar, which was promised only to the IMF forecasts, who claimed that the US Nationalwater was overly "delayed" At the site of the Main World War I, and the crisis for her will inevit.
By drawing up a dollar forecast for the ruble for January of the upcoming 2020, experts disagree in the assessment, promising who serious collapse of the ruble, who preserving the negative dynamics of the dollar - about the likely development of the situation in the foreign exchange market in the coming month will tell the material 24cm.
Sudden turn
Neither Sberbank analysts nor independent experts from ING and the RFI, which promised the completion of the year in the corridor of 63-64 units for Evergreen, did not expect strengthening the Russian currency. For consultants from "Opening" and "Raffaisenbank", whose rating of the ruble position in the table of courses of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of 2019 was still negative, the "failure" of the dollar turned out to be at all a serious surprise. The excuse is incorrect estimates are now looking for in increasing oil quotations, December tax payments, and even at the stop of the work of foreign trading platforms in connection with the Christmas holidays.
On the last item separately indicated Yuri Kravchenko from the investment company "Veles Capital", referring to the reduction of trading turnovers and a biased reflection of the situation in the markets of currencies due to the lack of a number of players. According to the expert, it is precisely this together with the rise in prices for "Black Gold", updated on December 26, a maximum of autumn, created a favorable situation for the "strengthening" of the ruble, but in January 2020 the situation is able to change, returning the dollar in the range 63-65 rubles for a unit.
There and here
In Sovcombank, appreciating the reasons for the growth of the ruble, agree with the arguments, but to build forecasts for the first month of the New Year fear - here it is believed that the dynamics after the return of Western sites from the vacation can be able to change for the worse for the Russian currency and continue. Therefore, long-term forecasts to build early - worth seeing the situation after the holidays.
Vyacheslav Maksimenko, responsible for the partnership programs of the investment and educational site "LINEK", believes that in the first month of the coming year, the ruble will be able to update record positions and still strengthen 61.5-61.7 . At the same time, in early January, it is possible to weaken 62.5 Dennaughter per unit of US currency due to the procurement of foreign securities of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of 2019.
Economists Reuters, relying on the current oil quotes and the situation in international markets, replaced the previously compiled forecast of the dollar rate to the ruble for January 2020 to a more positive - from 64.5 to 64.2 rubles for the US currency.
Very good
Experts of Appark's fingerties accounted for a preliminary chart of fluctuations in the dollar in January 2020. According to analysts of the Center, in the first month of the upcoming year, US monetary units expect a gradual fall to 59,4. followed up to mark in 60-60.5 rubles.But do not recommend forget about the possible impact of sanction policy against Russia, which is capable of affecting the situation. But there should be no serious distortion of preliminary assessment - as practice has shown, the sanctions are able to influence the ruble exchange rate.
Truth in the eye
A number of independent experts are incremented to say that "nodding" into oil, speaking about the growth of the ruble, no longer worth it - the dynamics on the market has changed due to the failure of the policies trying to remain in the state of the US economic leaders, including in relation to the "Northern Flow - 2 ", The completion of the construction of which inevitably. An attempt to put pressure on European partners has affected the course of the course, and then the "green paper" is waiting for an even greater drop.