At the end of 2019, the position on the trading platforms remains incomprehensible to experts - the ruble by December 26 for the first time in 1.5 years reached a new maximum in the area 61.81 per "American", and then almost started falling. Although this turn was expected (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of the year exercises the purchase of securities and currency reserves, which leads to weaken), in general, the stability of the USD / RUB pair is in question.
The opinion of experts on the development of the situation and the forecast of the dollar rate for 2020 - in the material 24cm.
What a final will be
Over the past year, thanks to the actions of the Central Bank, the ruble strengthened against the dollar for 10-11% percent - for 12 months, the Russian national currency has steadily grew. Starting January in the area 68 for the US monetary unit, in the last few days of December, the Russian ruble was for the first time since July 2018 to overcome the psychological mark of 62 units per dollar. Although then the schedule and swung in the opposite direction, which immediately managed to associate with the statement of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreškina that the strengthening of the main monetary unit of Russia could point to a decrease in domestic demand for the liquidity of the Nationalities.
According to Timur Nigmatullina from "Opening a broker", at the beginning of 2020 it is possible to expect the dollar growth to position in 65 rubles For the unit - the expert refers to the fact that the Russian Ministry of Finance has not yet carried out the placement of bonds of a federal loan, which is able to "play" on the side of the American Natsvalyuti.
From Sberbank, in the face of Analytics Yuri Popova, it was assumed that the course of "American presidents" would have time to grow, reaching at the beginning of 2020 marks in 63-64 rubles.
Views at Glass
Forecasts of experts of financial institutions regarding the behavior of a pair of ruble - the dollar in 2020 will differ, especially in the light of fresh updates in the tables of courses on currency exchanges.
So, the analyst "Opening a broker" Andrei Kochetkov believes: the likelihood of serious jumps of the course in the coming year is small - against the background of a trade confrontation between the United States and China in Russia, the situation will remain stable, leading to gradual strengthening of the national currency, which at the end of 2020 is able to "grow up "Another 7-8%. It is necessary to fear only sanctions. Although recent years have shown that the Russian economy and partner countries have learned to ignore this factor in relationships, which weakens its influence on fluctuations in courses.
But Natalia Orlova from Alfa-Bank builds pessimistic forecasts: at the beginning of 2020 ruble will be bargained in the corridor 63-64 units For the US dollar, gradually weakening. With a negative scenario to December, the Russian currency will be stolen to mark 70 rubles per dollar.
Analyst "BCS Broker" Mikhail Zeltser predicts the return of the dollar to the mark 62.4-62.5 rubles For a unit after the holidays, with subsequent maintenance of positive for Russian, the speakers with possible fluctuations near the mark of 60-62 units throughout the year.
Expert of the financial company Coface Anna Kokorev is sure: the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will reduce the growth of the ruble in the range throughout the year 62-67 units For one "green", since greater strengthening is able to negatively affect the rate of development of the economy.
Long-awaited meeting with iceberg
Societe Generale experts believe: the positions of the dollar fallen in relation to the rest of the world currencies in 2020 will only worsen that it becomes especially noticeable since the beginning of summer. Solidarity with them and analysts "Wells Fargo", arguing, however, that the weakening of the "evergreen" currency will have to the first quarter, which will lead to an increase in the dollar of the course of the world's currencies, including the ruble.
As a result, the course will fall until the mark below 60 rubles For a dollar in January-March 2020. However, subsequently, the "American presidents" positions fall, by the end of the year coming in a faster state - 64-65 rubles If there is no serious shocks. However, surprises, most likely, on the eve of the November elections of the US President, not to avoid, as the collapse.