Updated May 15.
In addition to the main news of the COVID-19 coronavirus infection, which the World Health Organization (WHO) stated on March 11, 2020, served as the panic sentiment in the world community. And this is understandable, because few represents what a pandemic is and what a threat is actually hidden under this definition that implies the large-scale distribution of infection. To avoid incorrect and spelling conclusions, it is worth understanding the situation, and also to understand what to expect to be expected taking into account the likely forecasts, how to prepare and reduce the risk of infection.
Epidemic and Pandemic: What is the difference?
Before starting to evaluate the disaster scale, it is worth understanding that, in fact, this definition means "pandemic". Despite the frightening name, in reality the term under review is used by WHO as one of the gradations of the level of distribution of the disease.
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1. At the beginning, when the number of illness exceeds characteristic of the specific geographic area, nationality or time of the year, indicators, but it remains within the epidemiological threshold, the situation receives the status of "outbreak".
2. As the disease spreads and the increase in the number of affected "outbreak" is able to paint into the "epidemic", which implies the threat of emergence of the emergency. As a rule, the epidemiological threshold is considered to be an indicator of 5% of the total number of residents of one region or the social group.
3. The epidemic, published beyond the initial focus of infection and at the same time spread to other countries and continents, is already called a "pandemic".
The decision to change the status is made for each case individually, for it is possible to predict how fast the situation will develop whether it will continue to deteriorate or return to the previous level, quite difficult. Actually, therefore, WHO could not have a long time to decide whether a coronavirus infection was given a pandemic status or to continue to be limited to the epidemic level. However, the rapidly spread in the world in the world did not leave representatives of the organization of choice.
Given the said, the difference between the pandemic and the epidemic consists only into the degree of propagation and the number of patients, and the recommendations on counteractive remain the same. In a special way, there is no need to prepare - it is only worth observing typical prescriptions, such as regular washing of hands with soap and disinfectants, as well as refusing to travel to cities and countries with a high number of sick. Otherwise, reducing the risk of infection is determined by the governing bodies of states.
Pandemic: yesterday and today
Pandemic coronavirus infection is far from the first in the world. Human civilization at least 18 times before this case faced diseases that managed to spread to a significant territory of the inhabitable world - in any case such a number was officially fixed.Among the pandemics are isolated inactive and active. The first category includes those that no longer represent the dangers and lost pandemic status. Among them:
- Justinianova Plague is the first documented pandemic recorded over the existence of humanity: a plague struck the entire territory of the civilized world in the VI-VIII centuries.
- Black death is the second plane pandemic, which has worked out in Europe in the XIV century and killed up to 60% of the entire local population.
- The third pandemic of the plague began in China in the middle of the XIX century and lasted more than 100 years, covering all the continents inhabited by people.
- Cholera Vibrion provoked in the XIX - early XX century 6 pandemic. The disease that occurred first only in India, first penetrated China and Japan. And then went further, with each new cycle increasing coverage and spreading in Russia, in Europe, as well as on the African and two American continents.
- For various varieties of influenza virus from the beginning of the 20th century, 6 pandemics are also listed. The Spaniards herself, the Spaniards, struck almost a third of the world's population and carried out from 50 to 100 million people, which accounted for up to 5.3% of the number of humanity in that period. By the way, the bird flu, the news about which only 7 years ago was no less frightening than about the coronavirus, and did not receive the status of a pandemic.
In addition to those listed and no longer representing threats, as well as excluding the epidemic of COVID-19, which in the WHO was recognized as a pandemic, currently three more diseases are active on the planet, which are of danger in a pandemic plan:
- Tuberculosis, raging from ancient times around the world, which suffers from the third of the inhabitants of the globe.
- Cholera - the seventh pandemic of the disease began in 1961 and continues until now.
- HIV infection is the scale of the propagation and the number of human immunodeficiency infected with the virus allows us to talk about a full-fledged pandemic.
It is surprising, but it turns out that humanity has already lived in no one decade in the conditions of constant availability of pandemics.
What to expect?
Do predictions and with confidence to talk about whether the pandemic of coronavirus infection will be distributed by the same pace and then the experts are not taken. Among the alleged embodiments of events are found radically different theories.
So, that a wave of infection will fall by June of this year, the epidemiologist from China Zhong Nanshan said. The scientist called on to enhance sanitary control on the borders and a rigid quarantine policy to limit the dissemination of the threat.
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But researchers from the Australian National University on the basis of current information regarding the dissemination of COVID-19 came to the conclusion that the new virus is able to repeat the "Spaniards" indicators, and then surpass, even with the most mild from possible scenarios for the development of a situation of 15 million people.
Chairman of the Board of the Moscow City Scientific Society of Therapists Pavel Vorobiev announced a week ago, he stated that in Russia cases of infection to the world of the virus would be, as before, wearing a partial nature, which looks truthfully taking into account the noted reduction in the ability to transfer the pathogen due to mutations.
Also, Professor pointed out that the recorded mortality rates draw a distorted picture - the mass of people who did not suspect infection, for a long time tolerated the disease "on the legs", only as a last resort referring to medical institutions, which led to the development of exacerbations. Storobiev also noted that most of the deaths - in patients with weakened health, which, with any infection, refer to a group of increased risk.
WHO does not exclude the likelihood of preserving the negative dynamics, and also notes that with an increase in the number of patients, the number of deaths will increase, therefore calls for vigilance. Available measures are being taken to combat the spread of infection, so the likelihood is that soon the number of daily rates will go to the decline.
It is also worth considering the information that this pandemic is not the first for humanity - people had already managed to cope with other diseases that have no less threat than coronavirus infection.