Updated August 4th
Since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic in China, COVID-19 continues to be the main topic of news releases around the world. The pandemic has already managed to lead to the death of over 120 thousand people and it is not going to stop yet. Against the background of disaster, experts, both from the environment of scientists, and from among doctors and journalists, seek to predict the further development of the situation and provide recommendations for the future.
Forecasts about Coronavirus, is it worth waiting for the end of infection with the onset of heat or the position of affairs will only deteriorate, and what will turn the COVID-19 pandemic for Russia and the world - in the material 24cm.
Relief close
The world's first in the world, the Chinese have managed to conduct a number of studies aimed at identifying the characteristics of the life cycle and the transfer of coronavirus, and the first to put forward a pandemic to end.
According to the statements by the University of Hong Kong, a comfortable temperature regime for infection - about 4 degrees Celsius. However, at the exit of the temperature indicators of the external environment outside the favorable zone, without antiseptic processing, the virus is able to persist on surfaces up to 2 weeks. Moreover, when heated to 70-75 ℃, the pathogen deactivation occurs within 5 minutes.
Coronavirus: Symptoms and Treatment
Therefore, responding to the question of when the activity of the infection provoked coronavirus will go to the decline and its distribution will stop, Hong Kong scientists suggested that it would have to wait for the end of the cold season - as soon as daytime temperatures exceed the mark at 20-25, the danger of COVID-19's infection drops .
Freelance epidemiologist of the Russian Ministry of Health and Zavorka Beginner of epidemiology and evidence-based medicine of the University of Siechen University, Nikolai Brico, still in March, said that the change in the season would affect the speed with which Coronavirus is distributed, the forecast of a specialist in the field of infectious diseases is: by the beginning of May, the situation will begin to improve.
Moreover, the probability that COVID-19 will be converging most of the inhabitants of the planet, the scientist called low, and also led the approximate deadlines for the end of the vaccine - by the end of 2020 the drug, according to Nikolai Ivanovich, will already be created.
Vladimir Nikiforov, the main infectious person of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency, agreed with the colleague, who additionally noted that in the second half of April, the increase in the number of daily diseases will cease. This opinion, according to Deputy Head of the Institute of Alexander Semenov, shares the Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology.
Vice-President of the Raen, Doctor of Medical Sciences Viktor Zuev also believes that the peak of infection will have to mid-April, after which the recession will begin. Confirms these conclusions and drawn up by the Mathematical Model Mathematical model, according to which the peak falls on the 18-20 days of the second spring month - but only subject to the compliance with the self-insulation regime.
Michael Levitt from Stanford, who received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, gives a positive assessment of the situation. The overseas biophysicist believes that the number of infected in the world is already close to the limit, so soon death will become less. Also, the scientist recommended avoiding panic capable of leading to much more deposits than any epidemic.
Rejoice
However, not all experts are inclined to build on the background of a pandemic that coronavirus provoked, forecasts in a positive vein. So, a member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Anatoly Altestein doubted that the peak of morbidity for Russia was so close, as his colleagues claim, and about the decline and even early to speak.
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Moreover, Anatoly Davidovich separately noted that to reduce the pace of propagation of coronavirus infection so that with minimal losses to get out of the crisis, possibly due to the restrictions of the movement of residents of the country and self-insulation.
Famous TV presenter Alexander Butchestnikov believes that Coronavirus will not quickly leave. Its spread will be of seasonal character, as in other sharp respiratory viral infections: during the cold season, the increase in the incidence, followed by the passage for the summer, and in the fall - a new flash. So before October, it is not worth building assumptions, and next year the return of COVID-19 seems very likely.
Another doctor from television, the Ukrainian pediatrician Evgeny Komarovsky, also believes that the situation with coronavirus infection will not be cleared at least until the end of 2020. By this time, had immunity to SARS-COV-2, and scientists will draw conclusions about the adaptability of the latter and tendency to mutate.
The Belgian microbiologist Peter Pyot also spoke about the probability of re-growth of the number of people infected after a short summer period of calm and the Chinese expert group on COVID-19 Infectiousist Zhang Wenhun. Both agree that the second wave of infection in autumn seems very likely, and about the final victory over the infection it is possible to speak only after creating a vaccine.
And according to the Microbiology specialist Richard Hatchett, working on the creation of the drug, until the end of the research remained at least a year, so in the next 12 months it is not necessary to speak about the termination of the pandemic. And for the specified period, not less than half of the inhabitants of the Earth will become infected.
Summing up
Based on the opinions of experts on such a serious problem, what a coronavirus has become for humanity, forecasts for the future, to unambiguously say what will happen further, difficult. Given the conclusions of Gongkong scientists on the effects of the temperature of the pathogen and the remarks of the remaining specialists about the development of the situation, a neutral scenario is realistic.
By the summer, the increase in the number of cases will cease, and mortality will decrease. This will lead to a reduction in the load on the medical institution and the rapid increase in the amount of recovered. While the warm weather will be maintained, the risk of SARS-COV-2 infection, most likely, will remain minimal, however, the growth of pathogenic activity is likely.
Moreover, such waves-outbreaks may be somewhat - it is possible that the coronavirus will become a certain influenza analogue, annually attacking the inhabitants of the planet. So the hope of rational to impose on the vaccine-developed vaccine - only vaccinations are guaranteed to protect those who are not yet infected with infection, but healing - from recurrence.
Well, in anticipation of a favorable outcome and improving the situation, the editorial office 24cmi recommends not to forget to wash your hands and comply with other recommendations of the doctors and the requirements of the governing bodies.