Nagorno-Karabakh due to the problems of the ethnopolitical identification of the inhabitants of the region in the late 80s - early 90s became the zone of voltage. The initial outbreak of aggression was repaired, but since these places there are regular signing sounds and crashing of explosions.
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 27, 2020 became a continuation of the solar history. What started by the confrontation, about its essence, causes and probable consequences - in the material 24cm.
Start of conflict
It is worth noting that the current conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, which in the morning of September 27, 2020, reported all the world media in the morning, did not become some new local confrontation - this area of the terrain at the junction of the territories and the interests of Azerbaijan and Armenia for 30 years remains a focus of tension.If you look at the local situation, it is more globally, then the roots of the conflict in the local mountains are rooted during the collapse of the Russian Empire, when it came to the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh by an independent political and administrative unit.
While the USSR existed, which established its orders in the local parts and left these lands in the Azerbaijan SSR, while giving extensive autonomy, the situation in the region remained relatively stable. But when the Union weakened his influence in connection with the new rejected trends, "oil", decades of confrontation with all sides of the opposition to the national administrative conflict, still worked.
The essence of the problem is as follows. Azerbaijan seeks to return the land, which he considers it to be as a State-legal successor of the Republic of Azerbaijan, existed in 1918-1920. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, so practically anyone and not recognized as a state wishes independence. What is supported by Armenia, which this region belonged before the conquest of Ottomans.
If, without returning to the events of the past, talk about the reasons for the fact that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh flashed again, then the versions are diverged, since all parties are "nodding" one to another, accusing at the beginning of hostilities.
According to the leadership of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the early Sunday morning the capital of the state Stepanakert was subjected to a massive shelling from Azerbaijan using the installations of salvo flames and aviation. As a result, civilians were killed.
The words of the press secretary of the head of the NKR Vagram Pogosyan supported in Yerevan. Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan on the page on Facebook reported shelling using rocket weapons and aviation equipment by the Azerbaijani troops of peaceful settlements in the territory of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
As opposed to statements received from Yerevan and Stepanakert, Baku reported that the military project was a counteroffensive. End to protect the civilian population after the positions of the armed forces of the Armenian side, a fire was opened in the direction of human settlements of Fizuli, Jebelle, Terrter throughout the length of the front, established after the July events.
Thus, each side of the newly gaining confrontation revolutions were called their own weighty reasons for the start of active hostilities.
What happens in Nagorno-Karabakh today
After those who followed the statements in NKR and Armenia that followed from all sides, ordered to introduce a martial law, and also declared universal mobilization. For the first time, the state of the state of the region went to such measures, as the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh was "frozen" in 1994, despite regular armed clashes at the border.
Azerbaijan did not immediately go to such decisive measures. But on the territory of a number of regions of the country located in close proximity to the fighting area, the martial law is obligatory to comply with the Commandant hour after all the same was introduced. Also on the territory of the republic was limited access to the Internet, according to the authorities, in order to prevent the alleged provocations from the Armenian side.
Kim Kardashian spoke on conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh
The spokesman for the Armenian Ministry of Defense accused the Azerbaijani side in informational training, which, according to Shushan Stepanyan, held state authorities before the next escalation of the conflict.
The authorities of the Republic of Azerbaijan on September 20 reported an increase in the concentration of Armenian Armed Forces along the border and warned about the probability of provocation from the enemy.
September 28 and Armenia, and Azerbaijan announced significant successes achieved during the fighting. Thus, from the Armenian side, it was announced by the destruction of over 200 enemy soldiers, as well as 30 units of military equipment, not counting two dozen drove drones.
The Azerbaijani military leadership in the morning of the 28th reported on the destruction of the enemy's living force in an amount exceeding 550 people, as well as military equipment with a total of over 60 units, which include tanks and armored vehicles, drones, anti-aircraft missile systems and artillery installations.
Confirmation of voiced Baku statistics on military loss of the enemy was subsequently refuted by the Armenian authorities. Information on the killed from the Azerbaijani side was also not confirmed.
Following this, mutual accusations were followed by actively involved in the hostilities of mercenaries from Syria and other foreign countries. Armenia argues that Turkey helps the opposite side with the militants. And Azerbaijan assures that, thanks to the help of hired military specialists, the official Yerevan and has the ability to distort the real figures of their own losses.
In the Republic of Armenia, the planned reception of patients has been stopped in medical institutions. In the framework of the military situation in the country, only the provision of medical assistance in emergency cases is allowed, as well as conducting resuscitation activities.
In the capital of Azerbaijan, the airport "Heydar Aliyev" was temporarily restricted, suspended until the end of September flights to Nakhichevan and canceling the planned international flights.
The NKR reported that they lost their position in the south of unrecognized state education. Also, the head of the Republic of Araik Harutyunyan suggested that other territorial losses follow in the near future.
Consequences
Regarding the likely development and consequences that will have a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the future perspective, the opinions disagree.So, Leonid Narsisyan, heading the Department of Defense Studies in Armenian Research & Development Institute, is sure that the most likely scenario is two. The first implies the sink of confrontation under pressure from the outside, from the countries that are not interested in the escalation of the conflict. The second is less likely, but it is possible - fighting will become uncontrollably expanding, tightening all new states in the war.
According to the head of the Research Center "Middle East - Caucasus" at the International Institute of the latest states of Stanislav Tarasov, the development of events in the region without the intervention of Turkey will not cost. The expert political analyst believes that the current conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh was initially provoked with the participation of the Turkish side, whose representatives are now important not to miss the moment after which the situation will be released from under control.
Stanislav Prudchin from the National Research Institute of the World Economy and International Relations considers the risks of further expansion of the armed conflict are sufficiently significant. This, according to the expert, indicates as a scale of mobilization in the participating countries, which was previously not observed in the region. So the reluctance of the parties to be among the losers, and therefore the willingness to go to extreme measures to lean the scales in their favor.
Also Prudchin is confident in the readiness of Turkey to support the Azerbaijani side. And separately indicates a difficult situation for Russia in a political aspect, which and with participants in the conflict maintains diplomatic relations. And with the OSCE cooperates in the development of a compromise solution on the problem of the region.
Reaction
Immediately after the start of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh followed the reaction from the world community.
Russia strongly stated to the participants of the confrontation on the need to immediately stop the fire and begin negotiations on the peaceful settlement of the conflict.
The United States reported that he would continue to follow the events in the region and consider the ability to prevent further exacerbation of the situation.
The Council of Europe Secretary General Maria Paychinovich-Buric called on the conflicting states to the peaceful decision of the issue, recalling the obligations taken by Armenia and Azerbaijan when joining the organization.
Iran reported readiness to make a mediator in peace negotiations between opposing parties.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made addressed to the leadership of Armenia requirement to stop the occupation of land of Azerbaijan, which occupies NKR. Also, the Turkish leader accused the OSCE in disability over three decades to solve the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Pope Francis called to pray to the population for the establishment of peace in the Caucasus, and also appealed to the opposing parties asking for a weapon and resolve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by "dialogue and negotiations".