February presented a unpleasant surprise for the Russian currency - by the end of the month, the schedule of the dollar's course relative to the ruble rushed upwards, for the first time since September 2019, "Through" the mark in 67 units . However, it cannot be said that the forecasts of those financial experts, which stubbornly predicted such a sudden collapse was confirmed: the reasons for the "steep peak" of the ruble were not at all presented aspects aspects, but a factor whose influence to predict a month ago could probably be No one, the global financial markets "delivered" the coronavirus epidemic.
About how they see the forecast of the US dollar in relation to the ruble on March financial experts will continue whether the dynamics negative for Russia during the first spring month or the currency table will again occur, sudden shuffers will occur, will tell the material 24cm.
Slide down
A number of economic institutions, among which the agency of financial prediction of APRECON, are inclined to think that in March, the ruble will continue to pass positions. However, analysts assure that there should be no longer analysts that have already occurred at the end of February, it should not be expected - the strengthening of the dollar will have a smooth trend, and by the end of the month the schedule of the American currency will be strengthened into the "ceiling" 70 rubles per unit . Although the situation is not excluded when the weakening of Russian dennaunations "slows down" in the area 68-69 rubles per dollar. The leading Finisperspert representation of the British Investment Company FXPRO in Russia Alexander Kuzckevich is also agreed with the conclusions that the "evergreen" will continue to be gradually strengthened.
Such a forecast of the dollar rate for March 2020, US currency growth supporters explain in the background of spreading the coronavirus epidemic beyond China with a crisis situation, which will push the main players to switch from risk assets to which include investments in Russian companies, more, by their Representation, stable. The last analysts tend to calculate gold and reserve currency.
Point of equilibrium
However, not everyone believe that the further weakening of the ruble is inevitable, despite the expected outflow of investments, as well as a further projected reduction in oil prices, which has already managed to "descend" to the edge in the last February $ 50 per barrel . In the analytical department of the company "Opening a broker", led to the fact that the Russian monetary unit in the coming weeks will also enaches at the level 66-67 For the American dollar, with periodic peaks, both positive and negative, in the course schedule.Going out of the corkscrew
With such a point of view, I agree to BCS Prime Minister and MTS Bank, experts that are confident that the loss of Russian enterprises in financial markets will eventually be balanced, which will eliminate the further development of the crisis situation. For example, against the background of a sharp cheapening of securities of small and medium-sized banks, the Sberbank's assets are noticeably strengthened and grow in the number of reliable institutions that are also supported by the state.
The result of such a "balancing" and will be as a result of the "fading" of the ruble course in the current "point of equilibrium", followed by the upset of lost positions. Yes, and the coronavirus, whose localization has shifted from the Asian sector to the European, will soon "swing the pendulum" in the opposite direction, leading to the weakening of the euro relative to the ruble, which invariably affects the dynamics of the Russian currency regarding the US bank. However, this will require time - according to experts, from 3 months to six months.
Rubber is not needed!
But the polls of independent experts conducted by the Refinitiv Agency say that a long time to "sit in the dungeon" of the Russian Natvalyuta does not have to - the course will return to the mark in 62-63 rubles For the "Green President" during the first spring month. This will be facilitated not only to move the focus of the proliferation of coronavirus, but also the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, scheduled for the last third of March, which will take a decision regarding the key banking rate for the nearest quarter. Analysts are confident that further mitigation will be followed, which will positively affect the federal loan bond market and will return interest in Russian securities by investors.
Vladimir Peremakin, who answers in the "SMP Bank" for strategic planning, supports this position. Noting that the negative development of the situation in the event of unpredictable shock activities is not to be excluded still, the expert does not deny that in March the ruble will still be able to return the former positions, which only contributes to the Martov Meeting of the OPEC countries, the purpose of which will be the stabilization of the price level on oil. The increase in oil quotes will have a positive impact on the dynamics of the growth of the Russian currency.
Owl Rubble: Latest News
On March 9, 2020, the ruble rate dropped sharply before a record mark. Analysts noted that the Russian currency fell so much for the first time over the past 4 years. At noon, the weekend holiday day, March 9, the dollar rate has already exceeded the mark of 74.8 rubles, and the euro - 85 rubles. The price of Brent oil decreased by about 30% and reached a mark of $ 31.38 per barrel, and the WTI-$ 27.9 fell on the WTI oil.
The collapse of the ruble occurred after unsuccessful negotiations of OPEC countries, during which members of the organization tried to negotiate with Russia to reduce oil production.
Experts analyzed the current situation and believe that the fall in the ruble exchange rate will continue due to the refusal of the agreement with OPEC +, the pandemic of coronavirus infection and sanctions. According to experts, it is possible to increase prices for cars, clothing and household appliances.
The Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Mishustin notes that the situation with the collapse of the ruble is under control. He noted that measures are taken to stabilize the financial painting, and the accumulated budget will allow the country for a few more years to fulfill its obligations.