August 2020 was not easy for the Republic of Belarus - the rallies who broke out after the elections of the president had a negative impact on the work of a number of large enterprises and on the economic situation as a whole. Financial experts, based on the latest news, hurried to reconsider the opinion on how the dollar rate in Belarus will change and how the euro behave in current conditions.
Forecasts for fluctuations in courses on the stock exchange - in the material 24cm.
General forecast
Even before the election, analysts of a number of financial institutions expressed the opinion that the dollar rate in Belarus, as well as the euro, will not be subjected to significant changes in the near future. So, according to experts, if the prerequisites for noticeable jumps of exchange rates will not appear, then after the election, the situation will not change greatly.However, the events began to unfold after August 9, 2020 forced a number of experts to think about what, probably, the situation in the country can noticeably affect the dynamics of currency trading. As often happens, opinions were divided. While some predicts a serious weakening of the Belarusian ruble in the near future to the euro and the dollar, others, on the contrary, express assumptions about the likely strengthening of the state currency to old positions.
In one experts agree: despite the fact that while the situation in Belarus has relatively poorly affected the courses of the main currency pairs - the euro and the dollar slightly "grown" from the beginning of August, - long, such a state of affairs will not last.
Expert opinion
1. According to the evaluation of the Belarusian and Russian financial observer Vladimir Tarasov, the dollar rate in Belarus will soon rush up. The reason for which, the expert approves, will be the depreciation of the state bonds of the republic on international exchanges associated with the likely introduction of sanctions by the United States and a number of European Union countries that declared that Alexander Lukashenko's victory in the presidential election refuses.
It is noteworthy that such a development of the situation is quite likely - on solving regarding restrictive measures against the Republic of Belarus, it will be known at the end of August, when the informal meeting of the EU heads will be held. If the sanctions are introduced, then inevitably the weakening of the Belarusian ruble, which will not only be able to "break down" a mark of 3-3.5 units per dollar, but also will be extremely close to devaluation.
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2. Confirms the likelihood of a negative scenario and the weakening of the positions of the state currency of Belarus and the senior analyst "Alpari Eurasia" Vadim Josub. The expert argues that if the election results are not revised, the result will be a catastrophe in the country's economy. The reason for the latter will serve sanctions and the associated decline in interest in the state of Western investors in opal.
The financial analyst adds that during the pair of the next years the situation can reach the default. However, in the near future, euro and dollar courses will remain at the current marks of 3 and 2.5-2.7 Belarusian rubles per unit of foreign currency, respectively. In the future, there will be a smooth weakening of BYN, which is able to force the National Bank to delay the default to prepay the currency assets in the domestic market, which will be the result of the devaluation.
3. Alexander Sabodin from FTM Brokers follows the opinion that it will not reach the devaluation - the reserves of the National Bank are sufficient to contain the situation. Although, taking into account the active buying currency from the country's residents, the dollar rate in Belarus, as well as the euro, will grow, but the psychological mark of 3 rubles per unit that in the fact that in another case does not overcome. However, a more accurate estimate still makes sense to leave at the end of the month when the situation with the sanctions will be understood.